Category Archives: Inflation

"In The Eye Of The [Economic] Storm"

Debt, Federal Reserve Bank, Inflation

The Wall Street Journal has a dilemma. How does an anti-Obama, Keynesian outfit treat the putative economic recovery. Here’s the compromise: “We’re not going to have a strong recovery … It’s likely going to be a pretty sluggish affair.”

The truth is much worse. But you already knew it. A couple of weeks back I warned against accepting the media-congressional-presidential complex’s contention that slight upticks in the GDP were indicators of a recovery. In “…Like A Housewarming For The Homeless” I explained that,

the GDP statistic is consumption-driven: it measures the kind of economic Brownian motion of which less is required. ‘This statistic is constructed in accordance with the view that what drives an economy is not the production of wealth but rather its consumption,’ confirms (Austrian) economist Frank Shostak. ‘What matters here is demand for final goods and services. Since consumer outlays are the largest part of overall demand, it is commonly held that consumer demand sets in motion economic growth.’

The temporary bump in the economy is due to the halcyon stimulative high—the effects of all the fiat funny-money floating around and further distorting production patterns.

Says Peter Schiff, the Austrian economics wizard who has yet to be wrong: We are now in an even deeper hole than when the crisis began. Rather than wrapping up a recession, we are actually sinking into a depression. If things look better now, it’s just because we are in the eye of the storm“:

By interfering with the unpleasant forces of the recession, we simply trade short-term gain for long-term pain. By propping up inefficient companies that should fail, we deprive more effective companies of the capital they need to grow. By holding up over-valued asset prices, we prevent the prudent or less well-off from snatching them up and, in doing so, creating a new price equilibrium based upon reality. By maintaining artificially low interest rates, we discourage the very savings that are so critical to capital formation and future economic growth. In addition, the false economic signals the Fed sends the market prevent a more efficient re-allocation of resources from taking place and leads to even more bad economic decision being made. By running such huge deficits, we further crowd-out private enterprise by making it harder for businesses to invest or hire

The verbose Donny Deutsch, a lefty business-cum-mediaman, who’s proving too much of a rightist for the front fems who anchor MSNBC programs, declared the “Clunkers for Cash” give-away, wealth-distribution initiative an example of economic innovation. Inoculate yourselves:

The recently passed “cash for clunkers” program (currently on-hold, as it ran out of funding in one week) is a perfect example of how government policy can make the economy worse. By incentivizing Americans to destroy fully paid-for cars so they can go deeper into debt buying brand new ones, the government weakens an already crippled economy. The last thing we want to do is subsidize Americans to go deeper into debt by buying more stuff. Don’t they realize that is precisely the behavior that got us into this mess?

Think about it this way. If your friend were in trouble because he had too much debt, would you encourage him to take on even more? Wouldn’t a real sign of progress be a reduction of debt, even if he had to cut back on his everyday expenses? What is true for an individual is also true for a collection of individuals, even if they call themselves a ‘government.’ If, as a country, we are even deeper into debt now than we were before, we are worse off. Period. The fact that the additional debt enabled better short-term GDP numbers is a long-term negative.

“In The Eye Of The [Economic] Storm”

Debt, Economy, Federal Reserve Bank, Inflation

The Wall Street Journal has a dilemma. How does an anti-Obama, Keynesian outfit treat the putative economic recovery. Here’s the compromise: “We’re not going to have a strong recovery … It’s likely going to be a pretty sluggish affair.”

The truth is much worse. But you already knew it. A couple of weeks back I warned against accepting the media-congressional-presidential complex’s contention that slight upticks in the GDP were indicators of a recovery. In “…Like A Housewarming For The Homeless” I explained that,

the GDP statistic is consumption-driven: it measures the kind of economic Brownian motion of which less is required. ‘This statistic is constructed in accordance with the view that what drives an economy is not the production of wealth but rather its consumption,’ confirms (Austrian) economist Frank Shostak. ‘What matters here is demand for final goods and services. Since consumer outlays are the largest part of overall demand, it is commonly held that consumer demand sets in motion economic growth.’

The temporary bump in the economy is due to the halcyon stimulative high—the effects of all the fiat funny-money floating around and further distorting production patterns.

Says Peter Schiff, the Austrian economics wizard who has yet to be wrong: We are now in an even deeper hole than when the crisis began. Rather than wrapping up a recession, we are actually sinking into a depression. If things look better now, it’s just because we are in the eye of the storm“:

By interfering with the unpleasant forces of the recession, we simply trade short-term gain for long-term pain. By propping up inefficient companies that should fail, we deprive more effective companies of the capital they need to grow. By holding up over-valued asset prices, we prevent the prudent or less well-off from snatching them up and, in doing so, creating a new price equilibrium based upon reality. By maintaining artificially low interest rates, we discourage the very savings that are so critical to capital formation and future economic growth. In addition, the false economic signals the Fed sends the market prevent a more efficient re-allocation of resources from taking place and leads to even more bad economic decision being made. By running such huge deficits, we further crowd-out private enterprise by making it harder for businesses to invest or hire

The verbose Donny Deutsch, a lefty business-cum-mediaman, who’s proving too much of a rightist for the front fems who anchor MSNBC programs, declared the “Clunkers for Cash” give-away, wealth-distribution initiative an example of economic innovation. Inoculate yourselves:

The recently passed “cash for clunkers” program (currently on-hold, as it ran out of funding in one week) is a perfect example of how government policy can make the economy worse. By incentivizing Americans to destroy fully paid-for cars so they can go deeper into debt buying brand new ones, the government weakens an already crippled economy. The last thing we want to do is subsidize Americans to go deeper into debt by buying more stuff. Don’t they realize that is precisely the behavior that got us into this mess?

Think about it this way. If your friend were in trouble because he had too much debt, would you encourage him to take on even more? Wouldn’t a real sign of progress be a reduction of debt, even if he had to cut back on his everyday expenses? What is true for an individual is also true for a collection of individuals, even if they call themselves a ‘government.’ If, as a country, we are even deeper into debt now than we were before, we are worse off. Period. The fact that the additional debt enabled better short-term GDP numbers is a long-term negative.

Updated: Stocks Or Savings?

Debt, Economy, Federal Reserve Bank, Inflation

Is America back and are the statists out? If only, says the one-and-only Peter Schiff. “The statists aren’t out; they’re here, they’re in control.” The Fed has yet to raise interest rates as it ought to. Americans have yet to begin saving in earnest. The government’s sticky paws are all over the place, prices are not being allowed to fall to reflect reality. We’re still a broke and bankrupt consumer economy.

Peter Morici, on the other hand, smells the recovery—a fourth-quarter recovery, to be precise. I wonder whether he’ll be asked back on the “Kudlow Report” when his prediction turns out to be false? Who am I kidding. Being a commentator on the “idiot’s lantern” means never having to say you’re sorry.

Update (July 21): Schiff said nothing about saving dollars. Anyone who follows his advice knows he recommends divesting of US assets. And he’s big on gold. We discussed strategizing in “Survival On the Road To serfdom.”

'Audit the Fed!'

Conservatism, Federal Reserve Bank, Founding Fathers, Inflation, Journalism, libertarianism, Republicans, Ron Paul

What I appreciate about Jack Hunter, also a Taki’s Magazine writer, is the way he marries solid principles and a pragmatic approach to politics. Unless a commentator achieves this feat in a consistent, principled manner, he is worthless. Yes, worthless! Some of our readers have been seduced by the habit so many libertarian scribblers have of vaporizing libertarian theory into the ether, while sitting on the fence and playing holier-than-thou when it comes to politics. Worthless as it is easy. Aside from the pleasant Southern lilt, Hunter has a natural knack for cleaving to reality while retaining principles. In ‘Audit the Fed!’ he narrates thus:

“While Bush and McCain were ‘abandoning free-market principles to save the free-market system’ by signing off on an $800 billion Wall Street Bailout, the Republican establishment still treated the truly free-market Ron Paul as some sort of crazy, irrelevant money crank.

It’s amazing the difference a year makes.

As of this writing, every single Republican in the House and over 60 Democrats have co-sponsored Paul’s H.R. 1207 Federal Reserve Transparency Act, which calls for an audit of the Federal Reserve. Given the current economic crisis, it turns out that many legislators are eager to see just how the Fed is able to print new money out of thin air. In the 1980’s, Paul introduced similar legislation with virtually no help from his fellow Republicans. In 2009, the entire party has lined up behind Ron Paul.”

Listen here.