FRED REED: Life in the Short Run: Desperation Examined

Crime,Drug War,Education,Energy,Europe,FRED REED,IMMIGRATION,Multiculturalism,Race,Racism,Russia


…the problem isn’t … racism. For example, I have no racial aversion to the Japanese, whom in fact I quite admire. Yet if every time I passed a Japanese on the street, he punched me in the face, I would quickly come to detest the Japanese. Would this be racism?


America faces disaster in its relations with blacks. We don’t admit it. Those in power seek desperately to hide this. Governments, politicians, the media and academia insist that what is happening isn’t. But it is. Censoring expression is easier than preventing awareness, though, and awareness grows.

What is happening is both awful and of grim portent. Blacks kill each other in thousands annually in the cities. They murder dozens of whites and Asians monthly in unprovoked attacks. The killers are often groups of young blacks of both sexes. The Knockout Game flourishes. Coverage of this is either nonexistent or duplicitous. For example, The constant attacks on Asians,, not infrequently involving a strong black man punching out an aging Asian woman, are described as racism. They are, but the racism is of blacks, blacks commit all of the attacks on Asians.

In city after city, violent crime runs at appalling levels and grows: Philadelphia, St. Louis, New Orleans, New York, Baltimore, Chicago. The accounts never mention who the criminals are. Cameras do. Surveillance videos of black mobs ransacking stores in malls—of black shoplifters calmly sweeping merchandise from store shelves into bags—do not appear on CNN, but they traverse the internet.

This can´t go on forever. Anger grows among nonblacks, among targeted Asians and whites and Latinos, among businesses forced out of cities, but the anger too is censored (video) by the media. Journalists don’t write about crime as that would be racist, and read only each other, and so don’t know what, likely, is coming.

Crime is not the only component of the collapse. The maleducation of blacks is a parallel disaster. Here again society prefers censorship to amelioration. An example was the discovery that in Baltimore whole schools lacked a single student reading at the “proficient” level. Many other schools had only a few. It later turned out that many were in fact reading at the first-grade level and that administrators were hiding it. This is not news. It is catastrophe. Those kids will be angry and unemployable for the next half-century.

The failures of blacks are variously attributed to the lingering effects of slavery, to poverty, discrimination, racism, or genetics. It makes no practical difference. None of these can be changed in the short run, meaning at least the next decade. The short run is where we live.

It is worth knowing what the problem isn’t. It isn’t racism. For example, I have no racial aversion to the Japanese, whom in fact I quite admire. Yet if every time I passed a Japanese on the street, he punched me in the face, I would quickly come to detest the Japanese. Would this be racism? If mobs of Japanese turned cities into abattoirs, looted stores, and beat people of other races unconscious, would disliking them be racism?

Here we arrive at Fred’s First Law of Practical Sociology: It’s the behavior, stupid. The majority of Americans will accept members of races that are productive, Anglophone, agreeable, and not criminal. If your new dentist turns out to be a Chinese woman, do you reach for your gun?? Or think of more pressing things, like folding your laundry?

A few examples.  My wife, a Mexicana, has been perfectly accepted all across America. My son-in-law, a Salvadoran, has risen to semi diplomatic status in the Pentagon. The (then) young Vietnamese woman who came out of Saigon with me in that now-ancient evacuation married a young white fellow who retired some years ago as a bird colonel, She has experienced no opprobrium in the military. Sixty-some million Latinos have come to America. Given the magnitude of the influx, the lack of race riots and the like astonishes.  Asians such as Chinese and Indians prosper. While it is not quite true that they are all programmers at Google, it is importantly close to true. Few notice. Inattention is the highest form of acceptance.

Most races assimilate with little difficulty. A couple of years ago a friend got me an appointment with an ophthalmologist at Johns Hopkins in Baltimore. This turned out to be Dr. Yassine Daoud, Lebanese, a former street urchin raised largely in a Palestinian refugee camp who, by a combination of brains, luck, and Harvard Med, ended up a star surgeon at Hopkins. On another occasion I saw an ophthalmologist at EDOW, Eye Doctors of Washington. She turned out to be Dr. Deepika Shah who, by a brown cast and her name, I placed from somewhere east of Suez. University of Virginia, med school at Penn, highly impressive resume, and pretty (look, I’m a guy. Deal with it.) The clinic’s insurance woman was named Martinez.  On the same trip at my bank the assistant manager and perhaps a teller were Mexican, perfect but slightly accented English. In Austin the eye doctor was Dr. Annie Chan, Chinese, and her clinic’s admin staff were Mexican women. A friend in Austin told me that it was common for Mexican girls to take two years of junior college and move into low-level office—i.e., white-collar—jobs.

This is a poor fit with nativist predictions that immigrants would not learn English, live twelve in a room on welfare, live by crime, spread bedbugs, and try to turn America into something called Aztlan, a mythical form of Mexico.

Is the current behavior of blacks inherent, perhaps genetic? It would seem not. In the Forties, when racism was real and virulent, illegitimacy, crime, illiteracy, and unemployment among blacks were much lower. New Yorkers of my acquaintance describe recently arrived Nigerians as courteous, honest, and self-supporting. When I was in high school in rural Virginia, back before the invention of fire, white kids went to King George High, blacks to Ralph Bunche, but there was no crime, shooting (unless you were a deer), or the horrendous illiteracy of today’s urban blacks. Walter Williams, the now-deceased black professor of economics and conservative columnist, at George Mason University, grew up in the housing projects of Philadelphia in the Thirties. He reported that there were the usual schoolyard fights, but no weapons, no attacks on teachers, and that kids could read. Anyone interested in the life of blacks in Mississippi in the Twenties might read Richard Wright’s Black Boy and Uncle Tom’s Children. There was no resemblance to today’s Chicago. There was horrendous racial discrimination.

Well and good. But what is or isn’t inherent matters not at all. We live in the short term and have to deal with what is.

While most races get along, blacks don’t. They assimilate too slowly to ward off whatever looms. A blowup is far from impossible. Note that it would be much worse for blacks than whites. Nonblacks are far more numerous. Food comes from distant farms owned by whites. Blacks depend on nonblacks perhaps much more than they realize. The cities would not recover for many years from a levantamiento, nor would race relations. We had better figure out how to prevent something we won’t like at all. Any of us.

The black center of gravity is the sprawling urban ghetto, a place where you can ride for long hours with the police, as I often have done, without seeing a white face. These places amount to a distributed foreign country. Rejection of the surrounding culture is intense, as evidenced by the adoption of unusual names like Latoya and Deewan. Little to no contact with the greater country exists. The social pathologies—illegitimacy, chaotic schools, drugs, welfare dependency, gangs, illiteracy—seem intractable. Whether they will remain so decades down the line is a question for the long term for people as yet unborn. Now is the short term. It is where we are.

The gravamen of the problem lies in the crime. It is this that swells the ranks of nativist groups and arouses growing anger in whites, Asians, Latinos. Without the lawlessness, various cures or palliatives might be tried. With the crime, growing anger among nonblacks leads to desire for harsh measures, long sentences, more police better armed and less restrained, segregation, anything to end the loss of civilization. What can be done about it? Most likely, nothing. Criminality is so out of control that a police solution would seem a war against blacks with burning of cities. Something akin to martial law would be needed even to make the attempt. Governments know this. They will do nothing.

Curiously, current policy in many jurisdictions is to eliminate bail so that serious criminals as well as shoplifters are released within hours of being apprehended. This increases a sense of impunity among black criminals that is much easier to grant than to take back.

It is worrisome that as the horror stories traverse the internet, videos of beatings, accounts of sharp increases in car jackings and lootings, non-whites who in the past would have said nothing become more openly angry. A friend in St. Louis, as decent a man as I have known, of liberal background, now says privately it is time for whites to begin shooting back. He loathes the nightly gunfire, the uncontrolled drag racing on public streets, the death of culture, the flight of the tax base.

We are winding a spring.

The solution? Nobody is even looking for one.  The politics of race consists entirely of warring groups calling each other names and pols trolling for votes with actual problems being innocent bystanders. Naming streets for Harriet Tubman and tearing down Confederate statues are feelgood measures for some that increase anger and division while doing nothing for or about blacks. Guns cannot be eliminated any time soon, the issue being at most a rallying cry of Bidenites against Deplorables. Throwing money offers little prospect.  Building Olympic gyms for inner-city schools will produce schools with Olympic gyms and unchanged pathologies. Increasing the salaries of teachers? Teachers with more money and unchanged pathologies.

Similarly, railing against drugs is political theater.  Drugs are too important a part of the American economy with too many pols on the take and too many banks wallowing in laundered money. Suggesting that black girls should marry before reproducing evokes shrieks of fury from feminists and the media, though rafts of studies have revealed that black kids with two parents do much better is school and engage in much less crime. And so on. In sum, anything that is politically possible won’t work, and anything that will work is politically impossible.

What now, Kemo Sabe?


Since everybody and his insane aunt in the attic is emoting over the sabotage of the Nordstream pipelines and who done it, I’ll throw in my thoughts, such as they are. The question is who benefits? The answer is the United States, which has been trying desperately to block Nordstream II for years. Why sabotage now? In Europe, heating, electricity, energy for factories, and fertilizer come from cheap Russian pipeline gas. All of the foregoing, including inflation, go up sharply without it. When things get cold and ugly come, say, January, European publics might start thinking, To hell with the Ukraine, we better drop sanctions on Russia and get our gas back. This would screw Washington’s war against Russia and end all hope of shutting down Nordstream II. Solution? Blow up all the pipelines, which has the added advantage of forcing Europe to buy expensive US gas. The Europeans, fragile things, won’t have the courage to say this.

Buy Fred’s Books! Tutankhamen didn’t, and He’s Dead. Coincidence?


FRED REED describes himself as [previously] a “Washington police reporter, former Washington editor for Harper’s and staff writer for Soldier of Fortune magazine, Marine combat vet from Viet Nam, and former long-haul hitchhiker, part-time sociopath, who once lived in Arlington, Virginia, across the Potomac River from the Yankee Capital.”
His essays “on the collapse of America” Mr. Reed calls “wildly funny, sometimes wacky, always provocative.”
“Fred is the Hunter Thompson of the right,” seconds Thomas E. Ricks in Foreign Policy magazine. His  commentary is “well-written, pungent political incorrectness mixed with smart military commentary and libertarian impulses, topped off with a splash of Third World sunshine and tequila.”



Killer Kink

Hardboiled is back! (The exclamation point is to arouse wild enthusiasm in the reader, a boiling literary lust.) Gritty crime fiction by longtime police reporter for the Washington Times, who knows the police from nine years of riding with them. Guaranteed free of white wine and cheese, sensitivity, or social justice.

23 thoughts on “FRED REED: Life in the Short Run: Desperation Examined

  1. Richard Brown

    On the money , as usual but 3 points: 1 There was no consultation about Latin immigration and the numbers are having a huge political effect. They are still 75/80% Democrat. ( Do Latin Blacks behave like American Blacks? Blacks in the UK cause massive problems)
    2 You didn’t mention Muslims. 3 The deformation of the white left, from gay rights to open paedophilia is a big a problem, intertwined, of course, and I know you know this.

  2. Oh You Kid

    “The solution?”
    Don’t know. Can’t even begin to say.
    However, what I do know, here and now, is that the (short/long) answer is not to declare that the solution is to pretend they’re not permanently entrenched part of whatever remains of America, having been here since almost day one, for better and worse.

  3. joe tentpeg

    “Russia and end all hope of shutting down Nordstream II. Solution? Blow up all the pipelines, which has the added advantage of forcing Europe to buy expensive US gas.”


    Anyone remember the Hindenburg?

    Now imagine floating ones…some call ’em LNG tankers….

  4. iggy

    “Is the current behavior of blacks inherent, perhaps genetic?”
    Societies, cultures derive from shared values, which in turn reflect aggregated individual behaviors. Culture is a reflection of those dominant behaviors, both emphasizing whatever behavior is prevalent, while simultaneously subverting competing values and thus behaviors.


    Answering the question:


    “Negroes in Negroland”.

    Written by an abolitionist in 1880 or so, your question answered. And more.


    Sad for America however the powers that be seem to want this.

  6. Alex

    “What now, Kemo Sabe?”

    What Daniel Patrick Moynihan said 50 years ago – benign neglect.

  7. David Parry

    Nordstream II? The only obvious candidate in this whodunit is Russia, unless it is Mossad playing some really weird game. Russia stopped piping gas to Germany just recently, and Nordstream II was not going to be used (and what is more, most likely not usable after a short time due to a shortage of Western-provided spare parts. Europe is most emphatically not going to give up if gas is in short supply. Which it is, and it isn’t. It can be obtained from other sources, but they are more expensive or not ready yet. Norway will shortly be sending gas to Germany through another pipeline.

    A certain amount depends on the coming winter. Most of the recent ones have been relatively mild, which will mean that less gas and electricity will be required. Many people are trying to economize, industry, too, and maybe that will help. How much? I don’t know. Luckily, I have a wood stove, so I can turn down the (gas) central heating a bit. With enough wood for at least two years, I won’t freeze.

    Abandon the Ukraine? No, definitely not. I live in eastern Europe, and the locals remember the Russians. They remember them very well indeed, and with no affection. To put it mildly, they don’t want them back. Since most of the eastern European countries are now in NATO, Russia would get a serious ass-kicking, possibly a nuclear one, if it tried to invade. The Ukraine wishes it was in NATO, and applied in 2008, but the Weest said that such a thing would provoke Russia. Well, yes, with hindsight we all have 20/20 vision.

    Once the war is over, expect Moldavia and Ukraine to get NATO membership toot sweet. It’s good joss for warding off evil spirits.

  8. H. P. Flashman

    Tossing truth bombs can be seen as a civic duty.
    Thank you.

  9. Jack Bowers

    For Fred Reed. Bravo, BRAVO, BRAVO! Another Fred MASTERPIECE! Thanks as always, your insight to our societal problems in right on target. I say frequently that the answer to the Black Problem, and Roger…. We have a BIG ONE, is Leadership — THERE IS NONE especially not from the Bidenistas. Barack Obama had a chance of a life time to help his race but failed miserably. His Regime actually left the Blacks in worse shape than before his Coronation. Being retired military, I strongly believe Leadership is the answer to most problems even technical ones. But where have all our leaders gone? Hiding some place waiting for the next Big One? I think not. The only real leader I have observed in the past 25 years is Donald Trump and he is a hated man by the Idiots and probably many Blacks. The BS in which we are living I think has been self inflicted for a Very Large Part. Roger, What now Kemo Sabe. Hopefully we will see DJT back in the driver’s seat again
    Jack Bowers
    CAPTAIN USN (ret)

  10. Jim Johnson

    My best friend from Yuma continues to send me your insights, starting way back when we discovered the magic of email. Just know we always instinctively recognized some day “somebody” would be perusing the Net for trigger words. We feel safe for not having true beer talks using the electronic Written Word. We both loved reading Kerouac and Thompson and you came close to giving us the same thrill through their eyes. Toss in some Phillip K. Dick and you have us nailed.
    Bruce disabused me from following my Dad into the USAF at the height of Nam, older-brother style. He had settled into married life next to my new stepdad, who could not be more different from my hugely metaled 2War veteran Father. Bruce had recently returned from bumping Generals from flights in-country, as he carried messages from Army to CIA in Laos. Liaising, they called it. It took a few decades before we shared a Mel Gibson war flick on Air America. I thought he was joking when saying it was the Real Deal. Until then, I never knew what he did. Not my business to know. No doubt he was obligated not to say. Now, we don’t give a shit. I just want him healthy and free to ramble, if the need arises. I was finally caught in the last Draft and Nixon ended it all 2 days prior to me reporting to Ft. Ord. I have no doubt it was a death sentence. Yes, Virginia, there is a God…
    I can thank you two guys for keeping me focused on realities beyond most Little People. I work every Saturday with young guys fascinated with all things Mason, starting our “University” back in the late 90’s. Gone are the inter-Lodge rivalries of our WW2 Brrthren. We are now District Masons, with all of our Grand Lodge intently curious for how we are “doing it”. I get to weave in the learned disciplines and perspectives you guys taught me. It is water in the desert to them. My next trick will return them to heavy involvement among the Community, looking first to ourselves to solve what ails us. I now see it as the proper progression from Past Master to the mysterious next step, left totally unaddressed in all our do’s and don’ts. Pssst- It’s how old George Washington knew it was time to “step down”. 2 terms was enough. Napoleon lost his bet that no man would walk away from such Power.
    Anyways, keep up shipping out the Bald Truth, Brother. We don’t live long enough to get old…

  11. Old Gringo

    The majority of blacks are hominids. Apparently, 10% have crossed the homo sapien threshold.
    I speak freely because I’m in my 70s and have no “cancellation” to be concerned with.
    Avoid blacks whenever possible. They ARE NOT your equal.

  12. Gene Su

    For me, the most frustrating feeling I feel towards American blacks is their hypocritical attitude towards crime. Every year, there are about 10,000 or so black-on-black murders. However, I never hear blacks complain about…
    – Having so many of their innocent people being murdered.
    – Having their neighborhoods dominated by violent gangsters and thugs.
    – Not being able to live, work, or sleep peacefully in said neighborhoods.
    – Having their property stolen or destroyed by black thugs.
    – The fraudulent education being propagated by their inner-city schools.
    – Bullies and thugs dominating said schools.
    And so on and so on.
    On the other hand, if a white police officer were to shoot a black hoodlum, we will see protests by affirmative action babies, speeches by black pols and Jesse and Al, photo ops by race grafters, and riots by the lumpen proletariat. Stores would be looted and burnt to the ground. We would hear endless SOB stories about how the dead thug was a “gentle giant”, “looking to turn his life around, etc. It would then become open season on the boys in blue.
    It feels vexing, if nothing else. Is there a reason why blacks have a double standard that I am missing?

  13. Tom

    When I was in my 20s, I backpacked across Europe. It lived up to its reputation as the center of the world’s civilization: the sophisticated manners of people, the politeness, the arts in everything built, and especially the order that I saw everywhere. 35 years later, I returned. The order was gone, the manners were gone. Everywhere that I went, I saw 3rd world migrants and their disorder. For Europeans, they appeared unaware of this shocking change, because they grow accustomed to it, daily.

    If you pay careful attention to how our Leaders think, you’ll realize they don’t think. Their minds drift with emotions and with every passing thought. They are incapable of focused thought. Because of this, this black crisis doesn’t get solved. Democracy is failing and our Government is engaged in a civil war between the two parties. The country is broke, its debt is now fueling a trillion dollars per year of interest costs. Yet, our leaders seem indifferent, spending even more. The population elects only leaders with addled and emotional thoughts. The country keeps descending further and further into disorder, while our military and Department of Homeland security keeps looking away from the real problems and enemies, instead focusing on the phantoms in our Leaders minds. The solution is to replace our Government with something that works. A 250 year old Government is not sacrosanct. If it is irreparably broken, it is irreparably broken and needs to be replaced.

  14. Tom Dolbert

    Great truths. Desperately needed. But not as much as National leadership which is not sorely lacking, but non-existent! Sad for America. Sad for our International constituents.

  15. John H Abeles MD

    The solutions, in major part, of this putrid situation?

    First – erase Marxist practices

    Cancel the Great Society and the nanny state that has robbed black men of their natural male role, taken his jobs and defender/ provider self image., while maintaining indolence, ennui and lack of purpose with social welfare

    Welfare state socialism has unintentionally encouraged out of wedlock sex, with supported abortions, removing the marriage imperative so that surviving black babies are raised without fathers – a proven pathway to crime, dependency and despondency

    Second – reform Freudian based victimhood education

    Ban “wokeism” in schools, return all schools to traditional schooling – the latter accounting for the better fates of immigrant blacks from Africa and the Caribbean in US Society – which teaches honour, chivalry, humility, probity, charity, civics, duty, shame, guilt, pity, sporting fair play, honesty and manners and eschews the psychology of victimhood, blame, narcissist focus, cheating, and dependence

    That’s the solution, Kemo Sabe…

  16. Jim Watson

    I recall when you predicted great disruption “when the Latin gangs decide to take over the inner cities from the black gangs”
    Do you still see that as likely?

  17. Jokem

    JOHN H ABELES MD – I suggest instead, make the Great Society a state or local program. That way there will be some balance imposed.

  18. Cody888

    In 1992, Jared Taylor wrote:
    “[O]ur society teaches blacks to hate whites. At every turn, blacks are told that whites are responsible for their problems. At every opportunity, blacks are reminded of slavery. Virtually every failure by blacks . . . is said to be the work of white people. . . . America has done everything within its power to encourage blacks to hate whites. ”

    As usual, Jared Taylor demonstrates his commitment to never mentioning the identity of that 2 % of our population who, through their control of Hollywood and the mainstream media and now, through their nearly 80 percent infestation of the Biden Administration – who have been the primary perpetrators of the subversive agenda to encourage blacks to hate Whites. Oh, and this agenda has even convinced White liberals to hate their own racial brothers and sisters.

  19. Phil

    Got mine, eff you. It’s the Boomer creed.

    “Most races assimilate with little difficulty.”

    *Goes on to list “model minority” success stories that are only possible because the moment these people wash ashore in America, they move to the front of the line before Americans, because they’re, um, “historically-disadvantaged.”*

    Will the Boomers EVER figure this thing out?

    As usual, the implication is “they just work harder.”

    No Fred, they don’t have to follow the same fucking rules we do. That’s all. And white Boomers are only too eager to hold them up as an example, so they can say SEE IT’S NOT RACIST. Too eager to shunt them into the Ivy League and on to professional positions. It’s more important that Boomers not appear racist than it is for American kids to have a future. It’s all their fault anyway, right? They didn’t work hard enough to best the people who get admitted with lower scores.

    We just won’t talk about the fact that these people TOOK THE PLACES of all the Americans who are now living on the streets. Where I live there are scores of Americans on the streets and scores of FOB Indians living in new million-dollar houses. They bring their entire families. But nah, this is all well and good. We’ll just blame the blacks.

    Your model-minority carpet-baggers are part of the problem, Fred, not part of the solution.

    Boomers would still all rather be dead than racist. And they’d rather die in a fire than point out the tiny-hats are behind this, not their shock troops the blacks.

  20. My Comment

    Blacks are not ruining the USA. Blacks are simply a tool the rulers fund and use against the masses.

  21. Gerhardt Goeken

    The more I observe the Wokesters in action, the more they remind me of characters from Harold Covington’s Northwest Front novels. It’s like they are LARPing the worst features of his fantasy world. But the Northwest Liberation Front has yet to emerge, and there will be no more novels to tell us when it will happen because Mr. Covington has since died.

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