print“Four Iranian missiles can destroy tiny Israel,” blared Fars, The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps’ (IRGC) news agency. DEBKAFile counters as follows:
[these] sources point [to the fact] that the experiences of the Gulf war show that this number of ordinary missiles could not cause anything like the damage calculated by the writer. What Zarey may be referring to are the stubborn rumors going around Western intelligence circles since early 2005 that during the breakup of the Soviet Union, Tehran laid hands on black market nuclear cruise missiles form the Ukraine and 3 to 5 more from Belarus.
THE SAME SOURCE cites “Western intelligence as suspecting that Tehran obtained those warheads from Belarus or from unconventional arms traffickers based in the Muslim Republics which were part of the USSR up until the 1990s. And indeed the Fars report did not specify what warheads the ‘conventional’ missiles would carry.”
Equally disconcerting: War president extraordinaire Barack Hussein Obama knows too well that his waning popularity rises when he kills people abroad. DEBKAFile predicts that “Obama is set to attack Iran’s nuclear sites by the fall of 2012.”
Indeed, Iran apologists have framed Iran’s nuclear belligerence as the “ultimate safeguard against an American attack.” The reference is, presumably, to Iran’s legitimate quest to defend against an American army that advanced on a neighbor—Iraq—and conquered it in the absence of provocation. I agree. But this is not Iran’s sole reason for arming itself with nuclear capability.
Iran’s leaders have made no bones about the need to solve the Jewish Question for once and for all. (In case you’re a public school graduate, this is code for liquidation.)
That Iran fears an out-of-control, aggressive U.S. is likely—and understandable. However, Iran’s madman-in-chief hasn’t threatened the United States; he has threatened Israel. Yet Iranophiles seldom depict Israel’s nuclear program as an equally legitimate, last-ditch defense. Instead, they contort like Cirque du Soleil contortionists to downplay the real threat Iran poses to Israel.
UPDATE: Via PBS’s FrontLine: “At the same time, it is not just Israel that may attack Iran. The Guardian reported on Wednesday that the British military is rapidly developing contingency plans to aid the United States in case it attacks Iran, based on the belief that “the US may decide to fast-forward plans for targeted missile strikes at some key Iranian facilities.” Efforts are evidently underway to determine the optimal location for deployment of the Royal Navy ships and submarines equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles to participate in such strikes.
Apparently, Iran’s resilience in the face of economic sanctions, as well as the cyberspace attacks on its nuclear facilities last year, has surprised Western observers. They believe that within a year, Iran will be moving all of its nuclear materials and more advanced centrifuges to the Fordow enrichment facility, built under a mountain near Qom. There they will be protected from most missiles and bombs, even though the Obama administration has quietly supplied Israel with bunker-buster bombs, something that even the George W. Bush administration refused to do.”
Read more.: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/11/news-rhetoric-suggesting-potential-israeli-attack-on-iran-escalates.html#ixzz1czfsz4Dp
As I pointed out in 2002/2003, when Bush was circling Saddam Hussein like a shark his prey: bluster has been a large part of the Islamic culture. It is possibly that Iran’s regime is putting on a show. But if Iran doesn’t intend to attack Israel, why does A-Jad (short for Ahmadinejad) not stop the threats? The Iranian leadership has never allayed Israel’s legitimate fears.
UPDATE II (Nov. 7): FACEBOOK CYBER-EJACULATE. I am interrupting this frivolous topic with news of the most “urgent” of facebook posts. I have been forced to post the following in response to “The white noise, the inability and unwillingness of Facebook participants to focus the mind on the topic of a post—their shameless habit of posting about every bowel movement experienced during the day to my Wall; the utter cyber-ejaculate spewed with confidence. I am expected (I have a life) to “moderate” what amounts to a meaningless stream of, “I hate Israel; I love Israel; Israelis should die; Israelis may live.”
What does it say about debate (at least on my FB thread)? I’m clearly permitting the wrong “friends” on the Wall, although FB has now made it near-impossible to be more selective in the posts allowed on a Wall.
I hinted at it before, here, but the more I am forced to interact online in the course of doing my thankless job; the more it repulses me. (And after experiencing this Cesspool of anti-Semitism and irrationality, my “professional” day of reckoning is closer.)
If you have a half a brain, you won’t enjoy this.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/11/news-ahmadinejad-lashes-out-at-critics.html
On one hand we have President Bush’s “There’s WMDs in Iraq, excuse me- Iran.” and on the other hand, the very serious possibility of war between Israel and Iran just because they can; with the rest of the Middle East waiting to scoop up the winner/loser. Life would have been a lot easier if Iran had chosen to use “Pebble bed” reactors instead of the type that can be used to build nukes. Plus a little “Silence is golden” from Terran. Then we add in that supposed attempt to assassinate the Saudi diplomat by the Iranians to fuel the fire and the Iranians have friends in Russia. Its anyone’s guess as to what will happen next; but, it appears that it will be interesting.
What a dangerous mess. Anybody familiar with my various rants on this blog knows that I have no problem with putting US military assets anywhere if there is a good enough reason. This whole year after year and country after country expedition of ours into the middle east and the Balkans has been one long disjointed mess. Our government is controlled by people who attack some place just to get the heat off from some breaking scandal or story of corruption. Yet we won’t even keep millions of aliens from walking across our borders and squatting in our country. We’re messing around a giant nest of scorpions and serpents without the will or the know how to carry out the fight. I don’t blame the Democrats. They are what they are and if left to their own devices you get the destruction of the US as we know it. I don’t blame the Republicans. They are what they are and left to their own devices they will defer to the Democrats thru weakness and habit. I blame the American voter for the whole mess. If we paid attention, used a little logic and showed some backbone we wouldn’t continue to elect these miserable, corrupt wretches to office.
Israel over the last several years has taken delivery of several Dolfin class German manufactured submarines that can serve as a launch platform for nuclear cruise missiles (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j33iXawr-RpZpCmlIkVylnRAoUyg). They probably have to be modified for that purpose though I imagine Israel has that capability. These subs give Israel the capacity to respond even to a successful nuclear attack from Iran with a fury to rival the wrath of Allah.
Israel probably can’t advertise this MAD (mutually assured destruction) strategy without putting their German suppliers in an uncomfortable position.
It certainly makes sense from Israel’s point of view to try to get Obama to help in this matter. That doesn’t mean that it is in the US’s interest to comply by attacking Iran.
I think that the real problem for Israel is that a nuclear armed Iran will feel freer to ramp up its proxy war against Israel because Israel’s direct response against Iran will have to be moderated in consideration of the nuclear question. I think it unlikely that Iran would risk Israel’s response to a Iranian nuclear first strike so long as Israel doesn’t find some other way to threaten the survival of the regime.
I don’t believe Iran would use a nuclear weapon if it got one because the mullahs are in charge and they are cowards. Achmadinejad is all talk and he isn’t the real Iranian power. Again, it’s the mullahs.
Also, I don’t think Iranians are suicidal and to some extent are reacting to US overreach in the region (Iran is surrounded by US forces).
In conclusion I think that the threat is overblown and Iran is only a threat to the extent that it supports terrorists groups like Hezbollah.
Too bad we’re importing people from these places. It’s good to know they’ll bring their cultures to “enrich” the US!
Mr. Obama needs a bigger war to call his own, to shore up his support for a second term.
“I don’t believe Iran would use a nuclear weapon if it got one because the mullahs are in charge and they are cowards.” Ben.. It is exactly the fact that they are cowards that would cause them to use it. The mullahs and the whole administrative branches of most Muslim countries are cowards, they have secret police, Political Correctness police (Shari- is political as much as religious, that’s why it is a state religion and a police state at the same time). Iran is interfering in the affairs of all of the Middle East; Syria, Iraq, Palestine, and everywhere. Its government is just like a mini-USA. The USA is run by the same type of people- cowards who brag about murder while trying to micro-manage the world. It’s not about nukes really. Conventional bombs have destroyed whole cities; Dresden, Edo (Tokyo) and numerous others, I don’t remember by name. Does anyone believe there would be a Palestine or Jordon or Lebanon left if Israel and Iran went at it? When you get two cowards (USA & Iran) who lack honor and are capable of widespread destruction, no one is safe.
Ilana,
It saddens me to know that you waste so much of your very valuable time and energy responding to the intellectual onanism of the overwhelming number of digital dilettantes you face. I for one would be terribly disappointed to lose your unique and consistently principled voice.
Just knowing that there is someone else out there who can correctly and so clearly identify the insanity I see daily makes it easier for me to endure. You so very often give me additional ammunition in the form of delightfully worded, lucid and concise arguments that I certainly hadn’t thought of. And, you frequently bring to my attention things that I wouldn’t have known about from my other sources.
Thank you so very much.
Nagasaki was the last weapon of mass destruction bomb so we have had 66 years rest. China in the 1960’s (in spite of Herman Cain’s ignorance) made threats to everyone but we have gone 47 years with the Mao-bomb. So it is LIKELY that Iran will NOT nuke [US or Israel or whomever] any time soon. Of course, given enough countries and years, even 0.99 chances of NO WAR loom ominous in the long range (mathematically, 0.99 raised to a large power is a very small number). Sadly, what is more likely is some pre-emptive war and that, in turn, is likely to be destabilizing in the long haul (as removing dictatorial thug Saddam Hussein has proven to be). The reason that Israel has never taken out Syria’s Assad is because a stable thug is better than rolling the dice to some nasty power struggle. It isn’t clear that the geniuses who run American foreign policy value caution and prudence over action.
There was a fascinating talk on C-SPAN about those “pre-emptive chickenhawks”: by Col. Andrew Bacevich, author:
http://www.amazon.com/Washington-Rules-Americas-Permanent-American/dp/0805091416
FACEBOOK: A soundbite nation who promotes pompous pizza pie pushers into Presidential prominence is not the most conducive to intelligent debate.
“…their shameless habit of posting about every bowel movement experienced during the day to my Wall…”
LOL This (among other things) is why I refuse to participate in Facebook. From what I understand this “Twitter” thing is even more navel gazing; “I’m going to lunch now”…”I’m back from lunch now.” If worse comes to worse, you could always forget the Facebook thing and stick with Barely a Blog. I’m sure regular posters here would have no problem helping out slapping down the occasional moron and we’d all hate to lose your wonderful commentary.