UPDATE III: 2010 Battle For Baghdad

Foreign Policy, Iraq, Law, Military, War

“The futility of establishing the rule of law in a place which has no tradition of it, notwithstanding, even if some color is given to the claim that the surge [has] ‘worked,’ it has to be clear that force is a limited weapon against a cause with unlimited recruits. It can cut back the number of insurgents by killing lots, it cannot eliminate the causes fueling the insurgency—these are, predominantly, the religious animus between Shia and Sunni that dates back to AD 680, and the American occupation. Brute force will temporarily curtail the first, but will only inflame the reaction to the last.”

That is how I summed up a September 14, 2007 column, on the week of the tiresome testimonies of Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker as to the surge-related success in reducing violence in Iraq. During that week, 79 Iraqis were murdered and 38 were wounded.

Tell me if anything has changed, 3 years on. According to the AP, “Days after the U.S. officially ended combat operations and touted Iraq’s ability to defend itself, American troops found themselves battling heavily armed militants assaulting an Iraqi military headquarters in the center of Baghdad on Sunday. The fighting killed 12 people and wounded dozens.

It was the first exchange of fire involving U.S. troops in Baghdad since the Aug. 31 deadline for formally ending the combat mission, and it showed that American troops remaining in the country are still being drawn into the fighting.”

Read MORE.

Of course, now the battle is on for the spoils of occupation. Without one strongman to provide law and order in that blighted and benighted spot, many smaller, less benevolent dictators have been loosed on the long-suffering Iraqis.

UPDATE I: To Mike: Bibi Netanyahu might have waxed fat about the wonders of exporting democracy, but did he adopt this American—previously French-Jacobin—form of oppression? Not on your life. Israel pretty much sticks to defending its threatened borders.

UPDATE II: Mike, Bibi speaks a superb Hebrew too. As a matter of fact, his son recently won Israel’s prestigious National Bible Quiz for Youth. I will be pleasantly surprised if the US has an equivalent competition. You have to be very bright to win this prize. It was always big deal and we all watched it on TV as youngsters. (You’d try and shout out the answers, but could seldom keep up with the talent.)

I think Chelsea Clinton is a hard-working, smart young woman (and pretty refined). But I can’t imagine the Bush, Obama, or McCain brood doing something seriously intellectual; the kind of thing that required unadulterated brain power (a degree in math), rather than feel-goodism (speak up for gay marriage).

UPDATE III: BACK to the topic. From PBS come the stories of Iraqi refugees on the joys of Daisy-Cutter delivered democracy (and yes, neo-creeps, Iraq once had a very viable professional class):

“DR. JALAL AL BAYA, dental surgeon (through translator): I had the largest dental practice in the country. And I had to abandon it when I fled to Jordan. There were lots of threats. And most of the scientists and doctors were targeted, so we had to reach out for a safe haven that was closest. And, for us, that was Jordan.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: The large family home was destroyed in a car bombing and shelling that ripped through their Baghdad neighborhood. That’s when Al Baya joined an exodus of Iraqi professionals, fleeing threats of kidnapping or just running from the wrong side of a political or religious divide. By some estimates, since 2003, at least 60 percent of Iraq’s doctors have either left or stopped practicing.”

MORE.

The Dynamics Of US Government Debt (& Bankruptcy)

Debt, Inflation

$120 Trillion: That’s a reoccurring figure in my writings on the economy. It’s, plus/minus, the sum total of the American government’s debt, including unfunded obligations and promises. According to Princeton’s Garry Becker and Richard Posner of the University of Chicago Law School, “evaluating a nation’s economic condition” involves comparing not the “public debt (government bonds) to Gross Domestic Product,” but comparing “assets and liabilities.”

“The major asset of any government is its taxing power, which of course cannot be equated to the entire GDP, or the entire value of the nation’s human and physical capital; for both economic and political reasons, the taxing power is limited to a percentage of GDP well below 100 percent. And, realistically, the liability side of the national ledger includes not only government bonds but also other contractual obligations, entitlements, and at least strongly anchored expectations concerning government services (we’re not about to eliminate our armed forces). In addition … the national balance sheet must be reckoned in dynamic terms, with due regard for likely increases both in GDP and in liabilities, especially increases in entitlement spending that are likely to result from the continued ageing (sic) of the population.”

“Because American tax rates are low by international standards and resistance to increasing them is fierce, … the ratio of current U.S. public debt to realistically realizable tax revenues is 3.58 to 1, which is the highest by a large margin of the countries in the report’s list.”

If you’re looking for the usual pacifier—European countries are way worse off than us in terms of profligacy—DON’T. Only Greece comes close to the Us’s “ratio of current public debt to realistically realizable tax revenues. … because of the uncertainty of the future), America’s net worth is negative, and this negative net worth is eight times larger than our GDP. This means that the net present value of the government’s liabilities, minus assets, is approximately $120 trillion.”

Another theme on these websites of mine: The political resistance from the oink sectors is too intense to effect change (were it not already too late).

The Becker-Posner blog reckons that “the bondholders and holders of other contractual rights against the government have to start worrying about the prospects for outright default or default through inflation. These are possibilities in our future, just as in the future of Greece.”

But if you were reading this space (including the regular posters in the Comments Section), you already knew that.

The Dynamics Of US Government Debt (& Bankruptcy)

Debt, Economy, Inflation

$120 Trillion: That’s a reoccurring figure in my writings on the economy. It’s, plus/minus, the sum total of the American government’s debt, including unfunded obligations and promises. According to Princeton’s Garry Becker and Richard Posner of the University of Chicago Law School, “evaluating a nation’s economic condition” involves comparing not the “public debt (government bonds) to Gross Domestic Product,” but comparing “assets and liabilities.”

“The major asset of any government is its taxing power, which of course cannot be equated to the entire GDP, or the entire value of the nation’s human and physical capital; for both economic and political reasons, the taxing power is limited to a percentage of GDP well below 100 percent. And, realistically, the liability side of the national ledger includes not only government bonds but also other contractual obligations, entitlements, and at least strongly anchored expectations concerning government services (we’re not about to eliminate our armed forces). In addition … the national balance sheet must be reckoned in dynamic terms, with due regard for likely increases both in GDP and in liabilities, especially increases in entitlement spending that are likely to result from the continued ageing (sic) of the population.”

“Because American tax rates are low by international standards and resistance to increasing them is fierce, … the ratio of current U.S. public debt to realistically realizable tax revenues is 3.58 to 1, which is the highest by a large margin of the countries in the report’s list.”

If you’re looking for the usual pacifier—European countries are way worse off than us in terms of profligacy—DON’T. Only Greece comes close to the Us’s “ratio of current public debt to realistically realizable tax revenues. … because of the uncertainty of the future), America’s net worth is negative, and this negative net worth is eight times larger than our GDP. This means that the net present value of the government’s liabilities, minus assets, is approximately $120 trillion.”

Another theme on these websites of mine: The political resistance from the oink sectors is too intense to effect change (were it not already too late).

The Becker-Posner blog reckons that “the bondholders and holders of other contractual rights against the government have to start worrying about the prospects for outright default or default through inflation. These are possibilities in our future, just as in the future of Greece.”

But if you were reading this space (including the regular posters in the Comments Section), you already knew that.

Goose-Stepping Stupid

Bush, Debt, Economy, Labor, Media

My favorite analogy in describing the random, rudderless veering of the political and economic “minds” that bedevil us on the idiot’s lantern is Brownian motion—microscopic particles (the minds in question) in motion, suspended in gas. Peter Schiff likens the flurry to a “flock of pigeons that stays in tight formation, flies feverishly, while refusing to stick to any particular direction for very long”:

“Today’s weak GDP numbers have finally caused the mass of economists to revise downward their formerly optimistic recovery forecasts, with many finally entertaining the possibility of a ‘double dip’ recession. It should be obvious by now that these economists only have the capacity to describe where the economy is moving in the short-term…they have no ability to explain the reasons behind the macro trends or make predictions that go beyond the next data release. But economics is not dart throwing. It can be understood and properly forecast.

The major mental block is that most economists believe that an economy grows as a result of spending. Any policy that encourages spending and discourages savings and investment is considered beneficial. Unfortunately, these policies, which only succeed in growing debt and government, act more as an economic sedative than a stimulant.”

[SNIP]

What do you know, the geese described above have news: it’s all good. TIME magazine wants you to know: Rising unemployment is good.

The Department of Labor reported August job numbers on Friday, and the numbers appeared to be another bad sign for the recovery. The economy lost 54,000 positions in the last full month of summer. Worse, the unemployment rate rose for the first time in four months to 9.6%, from a rate of 9.5% the month before.
So is this jobs report the latest sign that we are headed for a double dip? Probably not. Actually it’s the opposite. Despite what it looks like, today’s jobs numbers are good news for the economy. Mark Zandi, a closely watched economist, had this to say on CNBC when the job report was announced, “It solidifies the idea the economic recovery is going to remain intact.”

For a moment I was worried (actually, I began to worry—and warned of hyperinflation—in 2003, when “W” began the deficit spending in earnest).

The fig leaf of a “jobless recovery” is being used a bit less, but substitutes are coming fast and furious.