Category Archives: EU

FRED REED: America’s Unable To ‘Absorb’ A Russian First Nuclear Strike

China, EU, Europe, FRED REED, Russia, War

America is fragile. The country can handle normal and regional catastrophes. But nuclear war is neither normal nor regional.  Very few warheads would serve to wreck the United States beyond recovery for decades.

By Fred Reed

Pleasurable excitement ripples through the usual boredom of Washington, and the resident curiosities enjoy exquisite frissons, over the possibility of nuclear war over the Ukraine. Some official of the EU, or maybe it was the mediocrity in the White House with the truculence problem, but anyway one of the geniuses ruling the planet’s fate has said that if Russia used nukes, the Russian army would be destroyed, grrr, bowwow, woof. Exactly how it would be destroyed, the sayer didn’t say. Anyway, the threats and counterthreats swirl around the idea that a nuke war between Russia and the West might occur. Maybe, with tactical nukes in the Ukraine, about which nobody gives a rat’s nether region. The world is full of damned fools.

But:

The general staffs of both Russia and China are, whatever else you may think of them, sane. They know of America’s massive nuclear forces. They are not going to launch an atomic war. Sane behavior cannot be relied on with Washington’s second-rate lawyers, but the generals in the Pentagon are not crazy. They like hobbyist wars and big budgets, but if Biden ordered a nuclear strike, they would be likely to suddenly remember that Congress has to declare war and, seeing that their radar screens were empty of incoming missiles, and say, “Mr. President, we are not authorized to do that.” And recommend a committee.

What would such a war be like? Let’s guess.

America is fragile. We don’t notice because it works smoothly and because when a local catastrophe occurs—earthquake, hurricane, tornado—the rest of the country steps in to remedy things. The country can handle normal and regional catastrophes. But nuclear war is neither normal nor regional.  Very few warheads would serve to wreck the United States beyond recovery for decades. This should be clear to anyone who actually thinks about it.

Defense is impossible. Missile defenses are meaningless except as money funnels to the arms industry. This is not the place to go into decoys, hypersonics, Poseidon, maneuvering glide vehicles, bastion stationing, MIRV, just plain boring old cruise missiles, and so on. Coastal cities are particularly easy targets, being vulnerable to submarine-launched sea-skimming missiles. Washington, New York, Boston, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle for starters, all gone.

A modern country is a system of systems of systems, interdependent and interconnected—water, electricity, manufacturing, energy, telecommunications, transportation, pipelines, and complex supply chains.  These are interconnected, interdependent, and rely on large numbers of trained people showing up for work. Modern warheads are not the popgun squibs of Hiroshima. Talking of repair any time soon after the nuclear bombing of a conurbation is foolish because the city would have many hundreds of thousand of dead, housing destroyed, massive fires, horrendously burned people with no hope of medical care, and, in general, populations too focused on staying alive to worry about abstractions like supply chains.

The elimination of transportation might cause more death than the bombs. Cities, suburbs, and towns cannot feed themselves. They rely on a constant, heavy influx of food grown in remote regions. This food is shipped by rail or truck to distribution centers, as for example Chicago, whence it is transshipped to cities like New York. Heavy megatonnage on Chicago would disrupt rail lines and trucking firms. Trains and trucks need gasoline and diesel which come from somewhere, presumably in pipelines. These, broken by the blast, burning furiously, would take time to repair. Time is what cities would not have.

What would happen in, say, New York City even if, improbably, it were not bombed? Here we will ignore the likelihood of sheer, boiling panic and resultant chaos on learning that much of the country had been flattened. In the first few days there would be panic buying with shelves at supermarkets being emptied. Hunger would soon become serious. By day four, people would be hunting each other with knives to get their food. By the end of the second week, people would be eating each other. Literally. This happens in famines.

Most things in America rely on electricity. This comes from generating plants which burn stuff, usually natural gas or coal. These arrive on trains, which would not be running, or in trucks, not likely to be running. They depend on oil fields, refineries, and pipelines unlikely to function. All of the foregoing depend on employees continuing to go to work instead of trying to save their families. So—no electricity in New York, which goes dark.

This means no telephones, no internet, no lighting, and no elevators. How would this work out in a city of high rises? Most people would be nearly incommunicado in a lightless city. Huge traffic jams would form as people with cars tried to leave—to go where?—as long as gasoline in the tank lasted.

Where does water come from in New York? I don’t know, but it doesn’t flow spontaneously to the thirtieth floor. It needs to be pumped, which involves electricity, from wherever it comes from to wherever it has to go. No electricity, no pump. No pump, no water. And no flushing of toilets. River water could be drunk, of course. Think of the crowds.

In all likelihood, civil society would collapse by the end of the fourth day. The more virile ethnics would surge from the ghettos with guns and clubs to feed. Police would have disappeared or be either looking after their families or themselves looting. Civilization is a thin veneer. The streets and subways are not safe even without a nuclear war. The majority would be unarmed and unable to defend themselves. People who had never touched a gun would suddenly understand the appeal. If you think this would not happen, give my best to Tinker Belle.

Thus it would not be necessary to bomb a city to destroy it, only to cut it off from transport hubs for a couple of weeks. An attacker would of course destroy many cities in addition to necessary infrastructure. Those who plan nuclear wars may be psychopaths, or just insular geeks fiddling with bloodless abstractions, but they are not fools. They have carefully calculated how to most seriously damage a target country. In no more than a couple of months, perhaps two hundred million people would starve to death. Do you think this fantastic? Tell me why it is fantastic.

Parenthetically, in my days of walking the E-ring in the Pentagon, I read manuals on how to keep soldiers fighting after they had received lethal doses of radiation. They don’t die immediately and, depending on dosage, might be administered stimulants to keep them on their feet, or so the manuals said. These manuals also discussed whether these walking dead should be told that they were about to die. The authors used the evocative phrase “terrain alteration” to describe landscapes with all the trees lying on their sides, and we have all heard of “overkill.” After a nuclear war, millions would slowly die of radiation—read up on Nagasaki and Hiroshima—and burned corpses would rot in the streets, too numerous for burial by survivors with other things on their minds.

How would the next season’s crops be planted? Answer: they wouldn’t be. Where would fertilizer come from? Parts for tractors, trucks, harvesters? Making these requires functioning factories which require electricity, raw materials, and workers. If the attacker chose to hit agricultural lands with radiation-dirty cobalt bombs, these regions would be lethal for years. Nuclear planners think about these things.

Among “defense intellectuals,” there is, or was when I covered such things, insane talk of how America could “absorb” a Russian first strike and have enough missiles in reserve to destroy Russia. These people should be locked in sealed boxes and kept in abandoned coal mines.

Note also that Biden, Blinken, and Bolton, bibbety bobbety boo, and their families, live in DC, the priority target. While the rats are aboard the ship, they won’t sink it. If they are discovered boarding a Greyhound out of Washington at three a.m., dressed as washerwomen, it will be time to worry.

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FRED REED describes himself as [previously] a “Washington police reporter, former Washington editor for Harper’s and staff writer for Soldier of Fortune magazine, Marine combat vet from Viet Nam, and former long-haul hitchhiker, part-time sociopath, who once lived in Arlington, Virginia, across the Potomac River from the Yankee Capital.”
His essays “on the collapse of America” Mr. Reed calls “wildly funny, sometimes wacky, always provocative.”
“Fred is the Hunter Thompson of the right,” seconds Thomas E. Ricks in Foreign Policy magazine. His  commentary is “well-written, pungent political incorrectness mixed with smart military commentary and libertarian impulses, topped off with a splash of Third World sunshine and tequila.”

FRED’S BOOKS ARE ON AMAZON, HERE

FRED’S ARTICLES ARCHIVE

Killer Kink

Hardboiled is back! (The exclamation point is to arouse wild enthusiasm in the reader, a boiling literary lust.) Gritty crime fiction by longtime police reporter for the Washington Times, who knows the police from nine years of riding with them. Guaranteed free of white wine and cheese, sensitivity, or social justice.

 

FRED REED: A Diagnostic Letter To Our Euro-Peon Vassals, Who Are Dumber Than The Better Class Of Nematode

Britain, Democracy, Economy, Energy, EU, Europe, FRED REED, Free Markets, Intelligence, Russia

European countries aren’t real countries, says Fred. They have American occupation troops and military bases everywhere, uncouth foreign soldiers drinking [their] beer, diddling [their] daughters—Italian ones are best; English girls are often mistaken for dead—and letting Massuh Washington blow up their energy sources

BY FRED REED* (posing with a European)

Well, I declare. I hear you Europeans bleating and hollering about how unfair life is and you don’t have gas to keep warm if it gets cold in winter, which generally it does, and everything costs too much. Fact is, you deserve it. To be honest, which we journalists sometimes do, I think it’s amusing. It’s like watching a man beating his thumb with a hammer and saying, oh ouch, oh ouch, it hurts, oh ouch, it hurts and can’t figure out why. It’s because Europeans are so easily led, managed, dominated by the fetid Yankee Rome in Washington, which regards you as trained seals. I’ve known fire plugs, even toaster ovens, more intelligent than you are.

You poor widdle fings! You aren’t even real countries. You can’t be a real country when you have American occupation troops and military bases everywhere and uncouth foreign soldiers drinking your beer and diddling your daughters. GIs tell me the Italian ones are best, with English girls often being mistaken for dead. I couldn’t stand the humiliation, but Europeans are a resilient people.

Really, it’s a cackle. Mornings, I fire up the computer to see what you  squirming servile dwarves have done now. You are better than Monty Python. Think. Ten years ago you were all peaceful and had plenty of cheap Russian gas and your factories were humming like contented cats and you were buying stuff from Russia and selling it I don’t know what all. Then Master Washington says you have to push the Ukraine toward NATO. You dim twits need Ukraine in NATO like you need a corn cob where the sun don’t shine but Europe is servile by nature, so you say, “Yass, Bwana! What you say, Boss! Which boot we lick first, Massuh?”

I see a bull market for flavored boot polish. Brussels would buy trainloads.

Anyway, Russia says over and over and over, If Washington tries to put NATO in Ukraine, dey gonna be wah. Even a European, or some anyway, could understand this. Or maybe, with help from a caring adult. But Massuh Washington wanted wah, and told you to keep pushing, “Yass, Bwana,” and you didn’t listen to Putin, because you are dumber than retarded possums and belong in diapers. What children you are. Nanny nanny booboo.

This is wonderfully funny, and I am enjoying it outrageously. You are going to freeze. Good. It’s a hoot but it’s a Darwin thing too. It’s good for the world when a region with the aggregate IQ of inbred bacteria eliminates itself. Well, except for the Italian girls for the GIs. We’ll keep those. You are going to freeze solid like terra cotta soldiers or burn your houses to keep warm and your farmers will grow scrawny underweight plants because you cut off fertilizer and gas from Russia to show your devotion to your stern Potomac Father. It’s comic. You are so stoopid! When American proconsuls go to Brussels your anointed European butt-sniffers rush out to be patted on the head and, or so I hear, receive suitcases of money. How dignified.

But the funniest part was blowing up the pipelines. Yes. See, Washington couldn’t let Germany, the only potentially serious country in Europe, except it really isn’t one, trade with Russia and China. So it gets the war going in Ukraine, easy with malleable European dimwits, and then…blows up the pipelines! Simple, direct, and effective. The amusing thing is that everyone in Brussels knows perfectly well that America did it, as must every European with the IQ of a doorknob, but none of you weak sisters has the dangling ellipsoidals to say so, because then you would have to do something about it, and you are scared unto death of the United States. Of which the United States is well aware and so, reasonably, holds you in contempt. I do too. I mean doesn’t everybody?

So some silly woman in Belgium—Ursula Borderline or something, anyway a scrawny blonde who looks like she really needs a sandwich—yaps from under the sofa that doing bad things to Europe’s energy infrastructure is “unacceptable,” Grr, bowwow, woof. But sweetheart, you poor, dumb monument to pusillanimous inadequacy, of course it is acceptable. You are accepting it, aren’t you? You know who did it, Washington knows you know, but you will look studiedly puzzled while Washington chuckles inwardly. Europeans are so gelatinous, so weak, so negligible.

I mean, seriously. Suppose you admitted that America did it. What could you poor dears do about it? Nothing. NATO controls Europe. What do you think those bases are for? And Washington is NATO. You wouldn´t dare close even the smallest US base, or even a closet door in one. Haha! Freeze, baby, freeze.

So, suckers, you’ve been taken for a ride by experts. And America makes out like a bandit. Washington tells you who you can trade with, and you obey, yass, Bwana, what you say. America gets to sell you overpriced LNG (liquefied natural gas). You will meekly buy uberbillions of costume-jewelry weapons from America. Your dependence on the US approaches outright ownership. Without cheap Russian gas, electricity will be really pricey and your factories will close or maybe go offshore to America and Europe will get in touch with its inner backwater. Hey, it’s a giggle.

England is America’s most devoted camp follower, a political barnacle firm glued to the ship of the Yankee state, making international noises in an effort to pretend it is more than an American poodle. (You may be wondering how it is possible to be a poodle and a barnacle at the same time. Multiple personality disorder, maybe.) From Brexit we went to endless Truss ads. Now we are back to the standby, hissing at Russia. Yass, Massuh.

You think you are defending democracy, doing something about human rights and, you know, having values or something. No, halfwits, you are helping Washington cut you off from the world’s largest markets. Yes, children. As the rest of Eurasia grows like Topsy, as the center of gravity of technology and economy moves eastward, America will pillage you as you pillaged most of the world and turn you into a peninsular homeless shelter.  You will be all grateful to Massuh Washington for saving you from the evil Putin monster who was about to conquer all of Europe and turn you into slaves or robots or something else bad. You will buy lots of dysfunctional fighter planes.

And you will crawl. It is your way.

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Buy Fred’s Books! Solidly Built. You can squash bugs with them.

******************************************

FRED REED describes himself as [previously] a “Washington police reporter, former Washington editor for Harper’s and staff writer for Soldier of Fortune magazine, Marine combat vet from Viet Nam, and former long-haul hitchhiker, part-time sociopath, who once lived in Arlington, Virginia, across the Potomac River from the Yankee Capital.”
His essays “on the collapse of America” Mr. Reed calls “wildly funny, sometimes wacky, always provocative.”
“Fred is the Hunter Thompson of the right,” seconds Thomas E. Ricks in Foreign Policy magazine. His  commentary is “well-written, pungent political incorrectness mixed with smart military commentary and libertarian impulses, topped off with a splash of Third World sunshine and tequila.”

FRED’S BOOKS ARE ON AMAZON, HERE

FRED’S ARTICLES ARCHIVE

Killer Kink

Hardboiled is back! (The exclamation point is to arouse wild enthusiasm in the reader, a boiling literary lust.) Gritty crime fiction by longtime police reporter for the Washington Times, who knows the police from nine years of riding with them. Guaranteed free of white wine and cheese, sensitivity, or social justice.

*Image: Our author, Fred Reed, poses with a European. 

Lousy Lithuania Blockading Kaliningrad Could Be A Catalyst For World War Three

EU, Europe, Foreign Policy, Russia, The West, War

Russia will have to intrude into NATO territory to feed its people in Kaliningrad. NATO, doing Uncle Sam’s bidding, could then invoke its Article 5 obligation to, one and all, galvanize against Russia.

On July 28, 1914, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia pursuant to the killing of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife by a Serbian nationalist in Sarajevo, thus effectively starting the First World War.

Americans, aside some asses who may rot in Russian jails as prisoners of war, have not gotten as worked up about Ukraine as the neoconservative, neoliberal and the ConOink laptop bombardiers have wanted them to.

But Lithuania’s partial blockade of Kaliningrad—“a Russian sovereign territory on the Baltic Sea, sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland,” and thus reliant on these EU neighbors, also NATO members, for overland shipping of essential supplies—might just constitute a provocation like the one that ignited WWI.

This is the case because Russia will have to intrude into NATO territory to feed its people in Kaliningrad. NATO members, doing Uncle Sam’s bidding, could then invoke their Article 5 obligation to, one and all, galvanize against Russia.

Via ZeroHedge:

Ahead of the new Lithuanian transit ban taking effect, the state railways service was reportedly awaiting final word from the European Commission on enforcing it:

The cargo unit of Lithuania’s state railways service set out details of the ban in a letter to clients following “clarification” from the European Commission on the mechanism for applying the sanctions.

Previously, Lithuanian Deputy Foreign Minister Mantas Adomenas said the ministry was waiting for “clarification from the European Commission on applying European sanctions to Kaliningrad cargo transit.”

Brussels then ruled that “sanctioned goods and cargo should still be prohibited even if they travel from one part of Russia to another but through EU territory,” according to Rueters/Rferl.

In Moscow’s eyes, this is tantamount to laying economic siege to part of Russia’s sovereign territory and one million of its citizens. When the EU first proposed the blockage of goods as part of the last major sanctions package in early April, Kremlin officials warned of war given Moscow would have to “break the blockade” for the sake if its citizens.

MORE.

 

BREAKING: NEW COLUMN: It’s Biblical, Zelensky: A Leader Who Fails To Haggle For The Lives Of His People Has Failed

Ethics, EU, Europe, Foreign Policy, Hebrew Testament, Reason, Republicans, War

Critical thinking is not in the American bone marrow. A decade or two must first pass, during which only the “mute-button pundits” get to mouth received lies. We’re currently suspended in that phase with respect to Ukraine and its mythical leader. But in the unlikely case that my readers suddenly doubt my instincts—I’m pleased to report that in Ukraine, there are already  rumblings against lionized leader Volodymyr Zelensky.

This from the impeccable reporters of the leftist Economist: “… she and her colleagues were lulled into a false sense of security by Volodymyr Zelensky’s urging that life should carry on as normal, and by the inaction of the Ministry of Culture. ‘It was all, ‘Don’t mention the war’, says another art historian; ‘basically, they screwed up.’”

That’s in the spirit of my NEW COLUMN, “It’s Biblical, Zelensky Is A Failed Leader,” which appeared on WND.COM, The Unz Review and The New American.

Excerpt:

… To normies, a leader who doesn’t plead for the lives of his people is a failed leader. Diplomacy, negotiations, a cease fire: that’s the nomenclature clear-thinking people ought to wish instinctively to hear when they see the immiseration of Ukrainians and their cities. To my knowledge, not before the war and not now has Zelensky initiated, or partaken in, or been urged to pursue serious, high-level talks with Putin.

And while there is some indication that Zelensky might be inching closer to acceding  “neutrality for Kyiv and security guarantees for Moscow,” publicly, Zelensky has done nothing but snarl his contempt for Russia, roaring at the Kremlin to “hold peace talks now or suffer for generations.” This is not diplomacy, but yet more political posturing and provocation. (But then Zelensky, an actor, could be prepping to appear before the central, universal seat of asininity: Hollywood’s Oscars.)

The Hebrew Testament (though “Old,” it’s never out-of-date) is bedecked with examples of leaders pleading, even bargaining, for the lives of the Stiff-Necked People. Abraham haggled ingeniously with The Almighty over Sodom and Gomorrah. Queen Esther petitioned mighty King Xerxes (Ahasuerus) on behalf of Persian Jews, and Moses did the same for his enslaved people before Pharaoh. Another Hebrew has written that “he who saves you from war is better than he who sends you to war.” That’s what real leadership is about—uphold and fight for the people’s natural right to live peacefully. …

MORE on WND.COM, The Unz Review and The New American.

BREAKING: Finally, the cocky little guy, Zelensky, is scrambling to make diplomacy noises—could it be to cover his sorry ass at the eleventh hour? Via a source called NTD:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says a meeting between him and Russian President Vladimir Putin is needed to negotiate an end to the war, and that any compromise needs to be approved by a referendum. Meanwhile, people have started to evacuate from the Black Sea port of Odessa as Russian forces loom.

Note how Zelensky’s first instinct is to create a media record of his belated impulse to move in the right direction. Very slick. You’d think that after weeks of hell for Ukrainians—we’d learn that the president had already set up an open line to Putin. But no.

Zelensky’s diplomacy is still aspirational.

Oh, and in case you didn’t know where his heart lies: Over to Zelensky: “Justin Trudeau was one of those leaders who inspired me to join politics.”

The European Parliament’s Christine Anderson has some fighting words for Zelensky’s political muse: Trudeau, “You are a disgrace to any democracy. Please spare us your presence”. Watch. Listen.
What an eloquent, and powerful lady she is. If only the Deplorables of America had such representation.