SUPERB DISSECTION OF WHAT IS “A Ceasefire Deal, But Not a Peace Agreement: What Will Happen in Gaza After Hostages Are Released?”
Or, how I re-wrote the title, “A Ceasefire Deal (As The Bombs Fall), But Not a Peace Agreement: What Will Happen in Gaza After [Israeli POW] And Scant Few Palestinian Hostages Are Released
What an unusual assembly of excellent minds that speak truth: Mouin Rabbani, a Palestinian Middle East analyst favored greatly in my Gaza Essays, Muhammad Shehada, writer and analyst from Gaza whom I greatly esteem as well, and the best surprise: Ori Goldberg, an Israeli political analyst and scholar, and the first good intellect I’ve heard out of Israel since 2023. I mean it.
MOUIN RABBANI:
… this is an agreement. It’s not a peace agreement. It’s a ceasefire agreement, and a partial one. And given Israel’s previous conduct, and even more importantly, U.S. indulgence for Israel’s conduct, the indulgence of the West as a whole, this is a situation where Israel, should it so choose — and it will so choose, I suspect — will find a method to abrogate this agreement and ensure it is only of a temporary nature.
MUHAMMAD SHEHADA:
Well, the main thing that explains it is that tomorrow is the day where the Nobel Prize Committee will announce the Nobel Peace Prize winner. So, that’s the main thing that comes to mind. Otherwise, the second thing is Qatar. After Israel bombed Doha so viciously, Qatar has been demanding a price from the Trump administration. And Trump’s security reassurances that he gave in this executive order are practically worth nothing….
… This morning, Israel even intensified the bombing way more than before. It’s like they are in a rush, in a hurry, to kill as many people as possible and destroy much of the urban space as much as possible. They’ve been detonating those robotic suicide vehicles since yesterday. They’ve been bombing Khan Younis, Deir al-Balah, Gaza City, Al-Sabra, Tel al-Hawa, al-Shati camp. I just saw footage where Israeli tanks are literally bombing people alive on television on the beach, the people that were trying to go back to their homes. One of our colleagues, Motasem Dalloul in Gaza, just lost his third son today, that was murdered by the IDF.
PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO WHAT ORI GOLDBERG SAYS, and with whom I agree, about true politcal power in Israeli society:
… Netanyahu is not an aberration. He’s not an anomaly. He’s the quintessential Israeli prime minister. That’s why he keeps winning, not because he’s a magician who pulls cards out of his sleeve, because he knows this, this is what Israelis approve of. And consistent polling shows that he’s right. While Israelis may have protested his government, while certain sectors of Israeli society did not see themselves aligned with his ministers, the great majority of Israeli Jews supported his government’s policies in Gaza. That is not something that can be wished away. That is still true. His would-be competitors, his would-be heirs from the opposition have never said anything that differed significantly from the genocidal policies we’ve seen for the past two years in Gaza. Netanyahu knows this, and he is using this, as any savvy politician would, to situate himself for further battles….
… it’s more important to talk about Netanyahu himself and why this deal is good for him, not bad for him, because Netanyahu can now be the complete package. Netanyahu was the fearless leader who fought the difficult, inevitable war, but he is now the fearless leader who brings the difficult, inevitable deal. And he is the grown-up in the room. Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are the adolescents. You know, they do whatever they want. They’re juvenile. They have no responsibility. Netanyahu knows what’s what. And he was able to bring the hostages back. And should a snap election be called in Israel over the next six months — there’s very good chance that it will — that makes Netanyahu perhaps the most favored candidate to win the prime ministership again. …
… the Israeli public considers itself to have undergone the very difficult two years, sees itself as unrightfully victimized by its own government and by every global leader out there, an Israeli public that just wants to get back to normal, which means to repress the fact of the occupation and to return to life as a Jewish and democratic state, effectively an ethnocracy built on Jewish supremacy. …
UPDATE 10/10/025: Ha’aretz’s distillation of the “Agreement” and the events around it:
Hamas is inclined to accept U.S. President Trump’s cease-fire plan if certain amendments are made, including a clear commitment from Israel to withdraw from Gaza, officials familiar with talks in Qatar told Haaretz. Israel’s defense ministry said the IDF is besieging Gaza City, adding that “those who remain in the city are terrorists and terror supporters.” The Red Cross said it was forced to temporarily suspend operations in Gaza City due to escalating hostilities. Israeli forces destroyed a stockpile of 15 rockets in the central West Bank, the IDF said. Germany approved arms exports to Israel worth at least 2.46 million euros since implementing a partial export halt on equipment that could be used in Gaza.
Demonstrators lift placards during an anti-government protest calling for a ceasefire and for action to secure the return of Israelis held hostage in Gaza, in front of the Likud party building in Tel Aviv on September 30, 2025.
TRUMP’S PEACE PLAN: Hamas is inclined to accept U.S. President Trump’s cease-fire plan, provided certain amendments are made, officials familiar with talks in Qatar told Haaretz, adding that negotiations cannot progress without a commitment from Israel to withdraw from Gaza. The sources noted that there is currently no timetable for the IDF’s exit from the Strip, nor does the plan adequately explain the demand that Hamas disarm its offensive capabilities.
According to sources, Hamas intends to clarify that it is willing to accept the outline as it was presented last week to Arab leaders, before PM Netanyahu made changes to it, and will likely request guarantees from Qatar, Turkey, the U.S. and other mediators that accepting the proposal does not lead to a situation in which Israel controls the Strip without any obligation to withdraw.
Hamas is consulting with other factions, including Islamic Jihad, to present a unified position in discussions with mediators, sources said, with one adding that Islamic Jihad is pushing to reject Trump’s plan. However, one source said, Hamas recognizes the consequences of outright rejection and has received messages from Gaza indicating that the vast majority of the public expects approval.
Arab diplomats who spoke with Haaretz stressed that Arab states will cooperate with Trump’s original plan as stated, but if Netanyahu, through his amendments or actions, works to undermine it, they will not cooperate. In such a case, they said, Trump would need to clarify whether he supports Netanyahu or stands by his original principles.
A Hamas official told the BBC that the group is expected to reject Trump’s plan, is not ready to disarm, and will not agree to an international force being stationed in the Strip, which it sees as a new form of occupation.
“In the days ahead, Netanyahu will likely attempt to launch a protracted negotiation with the administration regarding the terms of the agreement, its final language, and the implementation timeline. The fact that the drafters of the plan didn’t set a binding timetable for the IDF’s withdrawal could complicate things down the line. At the same time, Netanyahu will leverage objections from the messianic right-wing parties in his coalition and scatter hints and declarations aimed at stressing Hamas and making the organization’s leaders believe that Israel will violate the agreement when the opportunity arises. Israel already violated the previous agreement when it resumed the war last March. Since then, Trump has not lived up to his commitment to impose an agreement after Hamas released U.S.-Israeli soldier Edan Alexander” – Amos Harel
GAZA: The Hamas-run Health Ministry said that Israeli fire has killed 51 people, including four aid-seekers, over the past 24 hours. According to the ministry, two Palestinians died on Wednesday of starvation in Gaza, including a child, and 66,148 have been killed in Gaza since the war started.
The IDF is bisecting the Strip into north and south and besieging Gaza City, Defense Minister Israel Katz said, adding that this is the “last chance for Gaza residents who are interested in moving south and leaving Hamas terrorists isolated in Gaza City itself in the face of IDF activity that continues at full strength” and that those who remain in the city are “terrorists and terror supporters.”
The IDF said it will close Al Rashid Street, the last remaining road connecting Gaza City with the rest of the Strip, effective 12 P.M. on Wednesday.
The International Committee of the Red Cross said that it has been forced to temporarily suspend operations in Gaza City and relocate staff due to escalating hostilities, adding that it “will continue to strive to provide support to civilians in Gaza City, whenever circumstances allow, from our offices in Deir al-Balah and Rafah, which remain fully operational.”
Data from the Hamas-run Health Ministry in recent days indicated a sharp decline in the number of deaths from hunger or malnutrition per day in the last 10 days from about five a day to an average of one person per day. Humanitarian workers said this likely stems either from Israel easing restrictions at the end of July and the subsequent improvement in food access, or from the chaos prevailing in hospitals, which is not allowing the ministry to properly collect data.
“Israel Defense Forces commanders say they fear that an extraordinary incident in the fighting in the Gaza Strip could cause the collapse of negotiations between Israel and Hamas over the new Trump proposal to end the war and bring home the hostages. They said they fear that an attack that results in a large number of civilian deaths or, alternatively, a Hamas operation that led to Israeli troop deaths, could result in renewed escalation and hinder the talks… The IDF brass is having a hard time hiding its desire to reach a deal and end the war in Gaza. Commanders in the field are having a hard time providing answers to the tens of thousands of reservists who have been called up in recent months for another round of combat. Therefore, the IDF wants to release as many reservists as possible the moment political leaders announce that the talks are progressing and that the fighting can be brought to a halt” – Yaniv Kubovich
GAZA FLOTILLA: The Global Sumud Flotilla en route to Gaza said early on Wednesday that drone activity is increasing over the flotilla as it nears its destination. Italy and Greece called on Israel not to hurt activists aboard, and urged activists to accept a compromise proposal to hand over aid to the Catholic Church and avoid a direct confrontation with Israel. Flotilla members have repeatedly rejected the proposal, saying that a key part of their mission is to expose Israel’s naval blockade on Gaza, which they consider unlawful.
ISRAEL: Four IDF soldiers were sentenced to 10 days in prison after refusing to travel in an unarmored Humvee in broad daylight along a dangerous route in Gaza, Israel’s public broadcaster reported. “Missions like this are done either in a tank, an armored vehicle or at night,” said one of the soldiers, adding that “we’re like sitting ducks there in daylight. It’s easy to get hit by a sniper or an RPG.”
Rocket sirens sounded in several Gaza border communities, the IDF said, adding that two rockets were likely intercepted and no casualties or damage were reported.
WEST BANK: Israeli forces located and destroyed a stockpile with 15 rockets in the central West Bank overnight into Wednesday, the IDF said.
Settlers set fire to a Palestinian-owned shed in the town of Hawara, Palestinian media reported.
GERMANY: Germany approved arms exports to Israel worth at least 2.46 million euros ($2.9 million) since implementing a partial export halt on equipment that could be used in the Gaza conflict, a response from the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs to a parliamentary inquiry by Die Linke (The Left) party showed. The shipments involved “other military goods” and did not include weapons of war, the ministry said.
Kan News with the original agreement document:
https://x.com/gilicohen10/status/1976388647793410258
https://www.kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/958603/
More important is what Diana Butto has to say:
“A ‘magic pill’ made Israeli violence invisible. We need to stop swallowing it.”
